I went through a rough calculation last night with my friend Maurice - does this make sense?
Fully loaded rig worse case gets hit with a 20mph (10m/sec) lump of air. Worse case force on rig F = 1/2mv2 where m = area x mass of air = 10m2 x 1000kg/870 balanced by weight on end of plank.
Force = 1/2 x 11.49kg x 100 = 574kg. Assume load shared between forestay, windward shroud and mainsheet but 60% taken by windward shroud = 344kg.
At 30mph of course this flies up to 775kg just about within the limit of the Harken wire fitting.
In practice this is static pressure with the boat stationary and sail at 90 degress to the wind. With an apparent wind angle of say 30 degrees to the sail this will reduce sideways pressure to 60% or 465Kg in a 30mph wind.
The above explains why most people use the wire blocks as they should never break but also why my solution didn't albeit with not much of a safety margin.
I think I'll change the blocks!
